On August 15, the curtain will be raised on football's greatest soap opera, as the 2025-26 Premier League season gets under way at the home of the reigning champions.

Anfield plays host to the new season's inaugural match, as Liverpool look to get their title defence off to a strong start against Andoni Iraola’s plucky Bournemouth.

The Reds have bolstered their ranks considerably this summer and will be eager to consolidate their position as England’s top dogs, but Arsenal, Manchester City, and World Club World Cup champions Chelsea, who have also strengthened, will be seeking to knock them off their perch.

Manchester United and Tottenham will be determined to set the record straight and get back into the top six following disastrous domestic campaigns last time round, with both sides recording their lowest Premier League positions (15th and 17th, respectively).

Spurs did, of course, pip United in the Europa League final, though, and new boss Thomas Frank will be leading them into the Champions League this term.

Aston Villa and Newcastle United, who have endured a difficult summer so far, will also aim to be in hot pursuit of those coveted Champions League spots.

Meanwhile, new boys Burnley, Leeds United and Sunderland will be hoping to avoid the same fate as the six previous newly promoted sides, who were all relegated following just one season in the top flight.

But what is Opta's supercomputer predicting for the 2025-26 campaign?

Liverpool’s title to lose

It’s been a monumentally tough period for those of a Liverpool persuasion, with the devastating loss of Diogo Jota in such tragic circumstances. Yet, if history has taught us anything, it’s that the six-time European champions face adversity head-on.

After Arne Slot became just the fifth manager to win the Premier League in his debut season, and the first Dutchman to ever mastermind a title triumph, the former Feyenoord boss has wasted no time this summer in shaping the squad in his image.

Liverpool have splashed close to £300m already in this transfer window, and that spending spree doesn’t appear to be slowing down any time soon, with Alexander Isak seemingly set in their sights.

The additions of Florian Wirtz, Hugo Ekitike, Jeremie Frimpong, Milos Kerkez, and Giorgi Mamardashvili have seen Liverpool assemble a squad rich in quality and depth, offsetting the voids left by Trent Alexander-Arnold, Luis Diaz, and Jarrell Quansah.

Could such an overhaul mean they become a team in transition, though? Well, the supercomputer predicts them to retain their Premier League crown, giving them a 28.5% chance of topping the table come the final day of the season.

With Man City champing at the bit to get back on track after their first trophyless season since Pep Guardiola took charge in 2016, Liverpool will be wary. The supercomputer has the Cityzens topping the table in 18.8% of its simulations.

However, it is Arsenal that Slot’s Liverpool should fear most according to the predictive model, with the Gunners given a 24.3% probability of ending a 21-year wait for glory.

Mikel Arteta will be the man to lead Arsenal into their milestone 100th consecutive season in the top flight, the longest ongoing run of any English side.

More disappointment at United and Spurs?

While the new season symbolises fresh beginnings, the supercomputer has not painted a particularly pretty picture for two of English football’s biggest names.

Man United are given only a 0.6% chance of finishing first and just a 6.7% chance of a top-four spot, which is in spite of Ruben Amorim overseeing a full pre-season campaign and adding Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo to his ranks.

Last season’s Europa League runners-up found the back of the net on just 44 occasions last term, the second-lowest tally outside of the bottom three.

Having lost a club-record number of games (18) in the Premier League in 2024-25, the supercomputer believes United are most likely to finish around 12th or 13th.

Although Tottenham ended their 17-year trophy drought with that Europa League win last season, Ange Postecoglou was unsentimentally sacked.

While Spurs will have renewed hopes ahead of a season that will witness the return of Champions League football to the Tottenham Hotspur stadium, their most likely position is 15th (7.6%). 

Spurs have made a statement signing in the form of Mohammed Kudus, though they have been frustrated in their attempts to bring in Morgan Gibbs-White from Nottingham Forest.

Yoane Wissa has been linked with a possible reunion with Frank, and that could be a sensible move, given Spurs have allowed Son Heung-min to bring his 10-year stint at the club to an end. 

Though Spurs will be dining at Europe's top table this season, the supercomputer hands them just a 5.8% likelihood of finishing in the top four in the league.

If they are to improve on last season, then tightening up at the back will be key. Spurs shipped 65 top-flight goals in 2024-25, with only the three relegated teams and Wolves conceding more. Tottenham's 64.4 expected goals against (xGA) was the fourth-worst in the division.

The top-four tussle

Fresh off the back of an unexpected Club World Cup triumph, Chelsea will be eyeing a return to the pinnacle of English football this term.

Their title aspirations have not been totally written off, with the Blues having an outside shot at 8.4%, but our model makes their most likely final position is fourth (10.9%).

Chelsea's top-four chances stand at 40.3%, with Villa (30.5%) and Newcastle (29.9%) forecasted to be their nearest challengers.

After cruelly missing out on a top-five finish on the final day of last season, Unai Emery’s side will be desperate to rally and mount another push, but they are touted by the supercomputer to end their campaign in fifth (9.6%).

And while Newcastle are fancied to push for a place in UEFA's flagship cup competition, they are in the midst of what is turning into a cruel summer.

Newcastle have missed out on top targets like James Trafford and Hugo Ekitike, and now it looks like they have also been snubbed by Benjamin Sesko.

Isak's future remains up in the air, though Eddie Howe will surely not want to sanction a departure without having secured an elite-calibre replacement.

But the bright side for Newcastle is Opta's model gives them a 29.9% probability of finishing in the top four, while the most frequent outcome is for them to land in sixth (9%).

Crystal Palace, Brighton, Bournemouth, Brentford and Nottingham Forest have all been tipped to finish in the top half. 

Will the promoted teams defy the supercomputer?

The competitive landscape for newly promoted clubs has not made for pleasant viewing over the last two seasons, with all six of those teams failing to avoid the drop at the first time of asking.

In Premier League history, there have only been three examples of all three teams going straight back down. Two of those have been in the last two seasons.

Will this latest batch buck the trend, though?

Sunderland return to the top flight riding the crest of a wave, after an eight-year hiatus. Yet, the supercomputer has the Black Cats staring down the barrel of an immediate drop. The model gives them a massive 34.1% chance of finishing at the bottom, and a 66.4% probability of finishing in the bottom three.

That said, Regis Le Bris' side – who saw Jobe Bellingham leave for Borussia Dortmund – have wasted no time in bolstering their ranks with a blend of exciting young talents like Habib Diarra and seasoned veterans like Granit Xhaka. Sunderland have spent over £110m in transfer fees so far this summer, so they are certainly not going to go down without a fight.

Championship winners Leeds are back in the big time and have money to spend, too. Daniel Farke's team, though, finished in the bottom three in 48% of the model's 10,000 data-led simulations, with their most likely final league position being 19th.

Burnley enjoyed a memorable promotion-winning campaign last season and were defensively irreproachable, conceding a record-breaking 16 goals all season, almost halving the current tally of 30 previously set by Watford.

The Clarets’ defensive solidity naturally lends itself to being a tougher proposition for Premier League teams compared to their promoted counterparts.

However, a key player in that effort – goalkeeper James Trafford – has left for Man City.

While their probability of finishing last is lower than Leeds or Sunderland's, at 16.6%, they still hold a 45.9% chance of ending up in the bottom three.

The aim for these three teams, then, is to drag other clubs into the scrap. Wolves have a 26.4% chance of going down, while West Ham's relegation prospects are coming in at 21.9%.

Fulham have been safely mid-table under Marco Silva in recent seasons, though the supercomputer is predicting it to be more of a struggle for them this time around, though the likelihood they head down to the second tier is only 14.7%.