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The Numbers Game: Leicester scrapping to stay up as Liverpool close in on glory
Liverpool could clinch the Premier League title on Sunday, while Leicester City need to win to stave off relegation from the Premier League.
Two seemingly inevitable outcomes are almost upon us.
Leicester City are destined for an immediate return to the Championship, while Liverpool have long since been sure of winning the Premier League title.
Both of these events could occur at the King Power Stadium on Sunday, albeit one of them feels more likely than the other.
Leicester will need to pull off a surprise victory if they are to stave off relegation, for another few days, at least.
Liverpool, meanwhile, could win the title with a victory, though only if Arsenal lose to Ipswich Town earlier in the day.
It would be just the sixth time a side has won the top-flight title with five games to spare, with Liverpool in 2019-20 the last occasion that happened, winning it with seven games to go, which is a competition record.
Arne Slot, meanwhile, is out to become just the fifth Premier League boss to win the title in his first season in the competition, and the first since Antonio Conte in 2016-17.
This week has been an emotional one for the Reds, with the anniversary of the Hillsborough disaster having passed on Wednesday. They will be looking to cap it on the highest of high notes.
And it is difficult to see how Leicester can upset the odds here.
So, let's dive into the key pre-match metrics.
What's expected?
This match sees the league's highest scorers visit the division's second-lowest scorers.
Liverpool have netted 74 goals, 12 more than any other team, from a league-leading 70.79 expected goals.
Leicester have scored 27 goals from a league-low 27.8 xG. Only three teams - Southampton, West Ham and Manchester United - have a lower shot conversion rate than the Foxes (9.44%).
Ruud van Nistelrooy's team have been poor at the back, too, conceding 72 goals. So, their chances do look bleak.
The Opta supercomputer agrees. Leicester came out as victors in just 10.9% of the model's data-led simulations.
Liverpool, on the other hand, have a whopping 73.2% win probability.
Liverpool have won their last four Premier League games against Leicester, while they have only failed to score in one of their last 15 against the Foxes in the league, a 0-1 loss in December 2021.
Leicester, meanwhile, have won just two of their last 13 Premier League games against the Reds (D1 L10), with both these wins coming consecutively at home in 2021 (3-1 in February, 1-0 in December).
An Easter resurrection?
If there is any day where a team might find some salvation, surely it is on Easter Sunday?
Although Leicester's record on this day is not a good one.
Leicester have lost both of their league games played on Easter Sunday, going down 0-3 at West Ham in the second tier in 1993, and 1-2 at Newcastle United in the Premier League in 2022.
On the other hand, Liverpool have lost just one of their 10 league games played on Easter Sunday (W7 D2), going down 3-0 at Manchester United in 2008.
Leicester did, at least, end their losing streak and scoreless run when they drew 2-2 with Brighton last time out. That marked the first time the Foxes had scored, or avoided defeat, in the top flight since January 26, when they beat Tottenham 2-1.
But the Foxes have lost their last eight home Premier League games without scoring a single goal, a record run in top-flight history. Only six sides have ever lost nine home games in a row in the top-flight, most recently Southampton between November and March this season.
The Foxes are looking to avoid becoming the first side in top-flight history to go nine consecutive home games without scoring a goal.
In Football League history across all divisions, only Mansfield Town (nine in the third tier between August and December 1971) and Wolves (10 in the second tier between December 1984 and April 1985) have achieved this unwanted feat.
Salah's special season is back on track
A four-game run without a goal contribution from Mohamed Salah led to Slot having to insist he had no doubt in Liverpool's talisman.
And Salah swiftly got back on course as he assisted Luis Diaz's opener in Liverpool's 2-1 win at West Ham.
Salah has, of course, been the driving force behind Liverpool's spectacular league campaign, and he is eyeing up some big records before the season is out.
He has scored in all five of Liverpool's Premier League games against newly promoted sides this season (seven goals). No player in the competition's history has scored in six separate matches against promoted clubs in a single campaign.
The Egyptian has been involved in 45 Premier League goals this season (27 goals, 18 assists), a record for a 38-game season. The all-time record is 47, by Andrew Cole in 1993-94 and Alan Shearer in 1994-95 (both 34 goals, 13 assists).
If Salah scores on Sunday, he would set the single-season record for away goals. He currently shares the record of 16 with Kevin Phillips (1999-2000) and Harry Kane (2022-23). Another away assist, and Salah would also stand alone as having the most Premier League assists on the road in a campaign, overtaking Cesc Fabregas' 11 from 2014-15.
And when it comes to all-time goal contributions for one team, Salah (268) is only eight away from Wayne Rooney's record of 276 for Man United.
He could even match Erling Haaland's 36 goals in a single season, should he get going in front of goal again.
What a season it has been for the 32-year-old.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Leicester City - Stephy Mavididi
Leicester fans have not had much to cheer this season, but Stephy Mavididi has at least provided some spark.
Mavididi has scored in four Premier League games for Leicester this season but is yet to end on the winning side (D3 L1).
The only Foxes player to score in more games without winning in a season is Mark Draper in 1994-95 (five).
Liverpool - Virgil van Dijk
Salah has now penned his new Liverpool contract, and while Trent Alexander-Arnold seems set to leave, captain Virgil van Dijk has also extended his stay with the Reds.
He scored Liverpool's winner against West Ham, heading in late on from Alexis Mac Allister's delivery.
Van Dijk scored his 24th Premier League goal, the most of any centre-back since his debut in the competition in September 2015.
John Terry (27) is the only defender in Premier League history with more headed goals than Van Dijk (18), who overtook Sami Hyypia (17).