Real Madrid has only been eliminated twice in its European history after winning the away leg. The last time it happened was in 2019 against Ajax Amsterdam.

Whether out of provocation, cunning, or conviction—and perhaps a little of all three—Pep Guardiola claimed that Manchester City had only a 1% chance of qualifying for the Champions League Round of 16 after their 2-3 defeat at Etihad Stadium against Real Madrid. A number thrown out casually, but one that is not far from the statistical truth. While coming back from a one-goal deficit is not impossible in football, especially for the reigning Premier League champions, doing so in a knockout match in Champions League against Real Madrid is a much more complex equation.

In fact, the defending Champions League champion, which has a special relationship with the tournament, is quite formidable when it holds an advantage in the away leg. Throughout history, Los Merengues have won the away leg 40 times in a knockout phase and have progressed 37 times. Only two teams have managed to overturn their deficit at Santiago Bernabéu and eliminate Real Madrid.

The first team to accomplish such a feat was OB Odense during the 1994-1995 season. After losing 2-3 in Denmark, with the defeat sealed by a goal from Danish player Michael Laudrup, the Danes managed to get revenge two weeks later at Santiago Bernabéu. With 20 minutes to go, the Danes completed the comeback with goals from Ulrich Pedersen and Morten Bisgaard, the latter scoring in the 90th minute, leaving an unforgettable mark on the history of the Madrid club.

The other team to pull off this miracle was Ajax Amsterdam in the 2018-2019 season. On February 13, 2019, Erik ten Hag's men lost 1-2 at the Johan-Cruijff Arena, with goals from Karim Benzema and Marco Asensio. However, in the return leg, Ajax made history by overturning the tie with a resounding 4-1 victory at Santiago Bernabéu, with goals from Hakim Ziyech, David Neres, Dušan Tadić, and Lasse Schöne.

A Titanic Challenge for Manchester City

With only two eliminations in 39 instances, Real Madrid has failed to qualify after winning the away leg just 5% of the time. This percentage is slightly higher than the 1% mentioned by Pep Guardiola, but it still underscores the magnitude of the challenge that Manchester City faces. The English club has lost its last three away matches in the Champions League and has never survived a first-leg defeat.