Real Madrid is set for a do-or-die match against Atlético Madrid at the Metropolitano. Despite securing a solid 2-1 win in the first leg at the Santiago Bernabéu, there are no guarantees of an easy path to the quarterfinals.

It would be a mistake to assume Atlético is out of the competition, so let’s break down the scenarios that favor Carlo Ancelotti’s squad.

What Does Real Madrid Need to Advance to the Quarterfinals?

Following their 2-1 home victory, Madrid only needs a draw to secure their place in the next round. A 0-0 result at the Metropolitano would be enough to see them through.

Any win or draw, regardless of the scoreline, would also send them to the quarterfinals. However, a loss by two goals or more would eliminate them, while a 2-1 defeat would force extra time—and possibly a penalty shootout if the tie remains level.

Ancelotti’s Thoughts After the First-Leg Win

Carlo Ancelotti praised his team’s performance, acknowledging that the victory gives them confidence but doesn’t guarantee qualification.

"It was a tight match, one worthy of a semifinal or final. We have a slight advantage, but the tie is still open," he said in a press conference.

The coach defended Vinícius and Mbappé’s performances, emphasizing their defensive contributions against a tough opponent. "Our plan wasn’t to press high. Atlético controlled parts of the game, but they didn’t create many chances. Breaking down their defense isn’t easy."

Ancelotti dismissed concerns over Mbappé’s fitness, attributing his recent struggles to a lack of training following a tooth extraction. "He missed three days of training, so he wasn’t at his best against Betis. But physically, he’s fine."

Regarding Jude Bellingham’s potential return, Ancelotti remained noncommittal about lineup changes. "Brahim isn’t an undisputed starter, but he’s important. He makes the most of his minutes and will continue to play."

The Italian also admitted his team suffered from fatigue late in the game but remained optimistic. "A 3-1 lead would have been ideal, but the advantage is small. The second leg will be just as tough."