Real Madrid Trail Bodø/Glimt in Title Odds as the Analyst Backs Arsenal

The latest projections from The Analyst’s supercomputer shake up the Champions League picture. Arsenal remain favorites to lift the trophy in Budapest, while Real Madrid’s chances drop sharply — even ranking below Bodo in overall title probability.

The numbers are in, and they don’t paint a bright picture for Spain’s biggest clubs. According to the supercomputer developed by The Analyst, Arsenal remain the strongest favorites to win the UEFA Champions League following the Round of 16 draw. The Spanish sides, meanwhile, find themselves significantly further down the list.

Round of 16 Predictions

The draw delivered mixed fortunes for LaLiga’s representatives. Real Madrid will once again face Manchester City, with the decisive second leg set for Manchester. The supercomputer gives Madrid just a 35.65% chance of advancing, compared to City’s 64.35%, underlining the scale of the challenge ahead.

There is more optimism for the other Spanish clubs. Atlético de Madrid are slight favorites against Tottenham Hotspur, with a 53.71% probability of progressing. FC Barcelona are also narrowly tipped to eliminate Newcastle United, holding a 55.34% chance of reaching the quarterfinals.

Elsewhere, Arsenal dominate the projections with an 85.85% probability against Bayer Leverkusen. Bayern Munich are given 76.83% against Atalanta BC, while Liverpool FC stand at 82.33% versus Galatasaray. Chelsea FC edge defending champions Paris Saint-Germain with 53.34%, and Sporting CP are strongly favored (63.98%) over giant-killers Bodø/Glimt.

Before the Draw

Even prior to the draw, Arsenal were seen as the most likely champions with a 29.56% probability. They were followed by Bayern (14.08%), Manchester City (12.94%), Liverpool (10.1%), Barcelona (6.75%), Chelsea (6.51%), PSG (4.93%), Real Madrid (3.76%), Newcastle (3.73%), Sporting CP (2.17%), Atlético (1.67%), Tottenham (1.65%), Leverkusen (0.8%), Atalanta (0.69%), Bodø/Glimt (0.45%) and Galatasaray (0.19%).

Updated Title Odds

After the draw, slight adjustments were made — but Arsenal still lead the race with a 27.4% chance of lifting the trophy in Budapest.

They are followed by Bayern (14.28%), Liverpool (12.83%), Manchester City (10.79%), Barcelona (7.72%), Chelsea (6.86%), Newcastle (4.66%), PSG (4.64%), Real Madrid (2.78%), Sporting CP (2.73%), Atlético (2%), Tottenham (1.22%), Atalanta (1.06%), Leverkusen (0.47%), Bodø/Glimt (0.39%) and Galatasaray (0.17%).

The verdict from the machine is clear: Madrid face an uphill battle — and their path to European glory appears steeper than ever.