The Numbers Game: England's new era begins under Tuchel
Thomas Tuchel starts his England tenure on Friday, as Albania visit Wembley for a 2026 World Cup qualifier.
It is the start of a new era for England on Friday, as Thomas Tuchel takes to the touchline for the first time as head coach.
The German officially started in his new role in January, having been named as the permanent successor to Gareth Southgate.
Lee Carsley saw England through their Nations League campaign prior to the turn of the year, but was not given the job on a full-time basis.
Tuchel has been presented with as comfortable a start as you could ask for. Albania and Latvia, both on home soil.
Sure, Albania provided some spark and fight at Euro 2024, but England are firm favourites for this World Cup qualifier at Wembley.
Tuchel's squad selection raised some eyebrows, though.
Marcus Rashford has come back in from the cold after a solid few weeks at Aston Villa, though Tuchel's selection of Jordan Henderson and Dan Burn were perhaps the most surprising.
Southgate stood by the midfielder after his move from Liverpool to the Saudi Pro League, though did then leave the former Reds captain out of his Euro 2024 squad, despite Henderson having made a move to Ajax in the January transfer window last year.
Henderson has 81 England caps. Since his international debut in November 2010, only Harry Kane (103), Kyle Walker (93), John Stones (83) and Raheem Sterling (82) have played more times for the Three Lions.
Whether Henderson will feature against Albania remains to be seen, as Tuchel looks to make the strongest start to his tenure.
What's expected?
England have won all six of their matches against Albania.
They only have a better 100% win ratio against Luxembourg (9/9), San Marino (8/8) and Malta (7/7).
Albania have only scored one goal in six meetings with England, with that being an Altin Rraklli strike in a 3-1 defeat in March 2001.
It is their lowest goals-per-game rate (0.17) against any nation they have faced three or more times.
Given that record, it is no surprise to see England are overwhelming favourites, according to Opta's supercomputer, which ran 10,000 data-led simulations ahead of this game.
The Three Lions came out on top in 80.1% of those, while Albania are handed just a 7.7% win probability.
So, the odds are very much in England's favour. Under Carsley, England won five of their six Nations League games, rounding out his interim campaign with a 5-0 rout of the Republic of Ireland in November.
While Tuchel's squad differs from the one Carsley picked, the former Bayern Munich coach has still picked a pool of players that are full of quality and should be capable of showing what they can do against a team ranked 65th in the world by FIFA.
A new era
As mentioned, Tuchel did not please everyone with his squad selection.
Nottingham Forest fans, in particular, felt aggrieved that they had no representatives in the squad, especially given their form this season.
Tuchel, however, has since called up Morgan Gibbs-White, though that is potentially due to concerns over Cole Palmer's fitness.
Gibbs-White has recorded 40 Premier League goal involvements for Forest (15 goals, 25 assists), overtaking Bryan Roy (39). Only Ian Woan (44) has more combined goals and assists for them in the top flight.
Dan Burn received his first England call-up, and though he is 32, the defender is deserving of some international recognition.
Burn has had a stellar week. He scored in Newcastle United's 2-1 win over Liverpool in Sunday's EFL Cup final, as the Magpies ended a 70-year wait for a major trophy.
He made a game-leading 11 clearances in that match, and won seven of his nine duels.
In the Premier League this season, no player has won more aerial duels than the former Brighton defender (101).
Burn has made 20 blocks in the top flight this term, ranking 16th in the top flight overall, while he ranks 12th for clearances (135) and joint-ninth for headed clearances (69).
At the top end of the pitch, Harry Kane will be aiming to get up and running for the year in international colours.
Robert Lewandowski (35) is the only player in Europe's top five leagues to score more goals in all competitions than Kane (32) in 2024-25 and, while playing under Tuchel at Bayern, the England captain scored 44 goals.
Since Kane made his first appearance in a World Cup qualifier in September 2016, only Lewandowski (25) and Cristiano Ronaldo (21) have netted more qualifying goals among European players than Kane (17 in 14 games). The Bayern forward has also been involved in six goals in two games against Albania (four goals, two assists).
Tuchel is out to extend a long run of permanent England bosses to have won their first game. Each of the last 10 have won their opener since Bobby Robson drew 1-1 with Denmark in 1982.
The only permanent manager to lose his first game was Alf Ramsey in 1963 against France.
Out to cause trouble
Albania have never won a competitive match against a nation who are in the top 10 of the FIFA World Rankings (D2 L17).
Though they did beat France (ranked ninth) 1-0 in June 2015 thanks to a goal from Ergys Kace. They also beat Italy (ranked outside of the top 10 at the time) in their Euro 2024 opener last year.
That famous victory did not ultimately prove enough for Albania to progress, though. They drew 2-2 with Croatia in their second game before losing 1-0 to eventual champions Spain.
They have players with experience in Europe's top five leagues, though.
Thomas Strakosha excelled at Lazio and was at Brentford until last year, when he joined AEK Athens.
Armando Broja returned to action for Everton this past weekend and is able to pose a threat in attack, though he is yet to score a goal this season.
Albania are up against it, though. They are facing an England team that are unbeaten in their last 31 World Cup qualifiers (W23 D8), the longest ongoing run of any European nation. Only once have the Three Lions lost their first qualifier of a campaign (W13 D3), losing 1-0 to Germany in October 2000 in their final game at the old Wembley.
Intriguingly, England have won 16 of their last 17 internationals against nations whose name begins with A (D1), keeping 15 clean sheets.
The last ‘A’ nation to beat England was Australia at Upton Park back in February 2003, while in a competitive match it was Argentina at the 1986 World Cup.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
England - Jude Bellingham
Bellingham is set to break a record that has stood since 2007 with his next England appearance.
It will mark his 41st cap, meaning the Real Madrid star will surpass Wayne Rooney's national record of 40 caps while aged under 22.
Since he made his England debut in November 2020, Bellingham has contributed to 12 goals (six goals, six assists), a tally bettered by only Bukayo Saka (16) and Kane (45) in that time. He has been involved in 10 goals in his last 15 appearances for England (five goals, five assists).
Albania - Armando Broja
It has been another injury-hit campaign for Broja, who is on loan at Everton from Chelsea.
The 23-year-old has made just six Premier League appearances for the Toffees, recording only 168 minutes in the top flight.
He has scored five goals in 23 appearances for Albania in all competitions, and if Broja does get a chance to feature on Friday, he will surely be eager to show just what he can do as he plays for his club future.