Mikel Arteta's Arsenal reign has been, on the face of it, an unmitigated success. 

Just over five years after taking the reins, Arteta has transformed Arsenal's squad and reconnected fans and players at the Emirates Stadium. If not for the brilliance of Pep Guardiola's Manchester City, he might have two Premier League titles to show for his efforts.

However, 2020's FA Cup success remains Arteta's lone major trophy at the helm, and Tuesday's 2-0 EFL Cup loss to Newcastle United amplified dissenting voices.

Should the Gunners fail to overturn that two-goal deficit when they resume their semi-final tie in early February, the FA Cup could be their best shot at silverware this season, with Liverpool threatening to run away with the league title.

Arsenal face a tough assignment on third-round weekend, with FA Cup holders Manchester United visiting the Emirates fresh from a morale-boosting 2-2 draw at Anfield last week.

To preview Sunday's game, we delve into all the best stats and data insights connected to both teams.

What's expected?

This will be the 16th different FA Cup tie – excluding replays or second legs – between Arsenal and Man Utd, the second-most of any fixture in the competition's history behind Liverpool versus Everton (19).

It will, however, be the first time the FA Cup's two most successful clubs (Arsenal 14 titles, United 13) have met in the third round of the competition.

Sunday's game will make Arsenal versus United the seventh different fixture in FA Cup history to be played in each of the six rounds available to top-flight clubs (third round to final), after Arsenal against Chelsea, Chelsea versus Liverpool, Chelsea versus Man United, Chelsea against Tottenham, Liverpool versus United and United against Southampton.

Arsenal have been eliminated in the third round of the FA Cup twice in the last three years, having previously only fallen at this hurdle once in 25 seasons.

United, meanwhile, have eliminated Arsenal from the FA Cup on more occasions than any other club (eight times), though the Gunners have also knocked out the Red Devils more than any other team (seven).

The Opta supercomputer makes Arsenal heavy favourites to advance, giving the Gunners a 71.4% chance of victory inside 90 minutes.

United only won 12.2% of our pre-match simulations, while 16.3% finished level. With FA Cup replays now history, a draw would send the tie to extra time and potentially penalties.

Will Gunners fire?

For all Arteta's talk about the impact of the 'tricky' Puma-manufactured balls used in the EFL Cup, he will know Arsenal's attacking was well below-par on Tuesday, and not for the first time.

The Gunners fired off 23 shots without success in Tuesday's game, their second-most in a single match without scoring under Arteta, after they recorded 30 in a Premier League defeat to West Ham in December 2023.

Gabriel Martinelli, Kai Havertz and Jurrien Timber all missed glaring chances against the Magpies, as Arsenal tallied 3.09 expected goals (xG) but only hit the target three times.

Better is required next time out, though Arsenal's offensive struggles – at least from open play – have been a theme of their season.

Across all competitions, Arsenal have averaged 1.37 goals from open play per 90 minutes this season, from an average of 1.26 xG per game. Both of those figures are down on 2023-24, when the Gunners scored 1.46 goals per game from open play, averaging 1.32 xG.

They average over two shots fewer from open play when compared to last season (10 to 12.1), while their xG per shot in 2024-25 has been 0.11 when set-pieces are excluded, compared to 0.13 xG per effort last term.

Arteta insisted last month he was flattered by jokey comparisons between his side and the Stoke City team famed for their reliance on set-pieces under Tony Pulis, but deep down, he cannot be satisfied by their stagnation in open play.

Their drop-off has been even more noticeable against their rivals, with Arsenal only winning two of 10 Premier League matches against top-half teams this season (six draws, two defeats), compared to nine of 10 against sides in the bottom half (one draw).

United are languishing in 13th, but recent results at Manchester City and Liverpool have shown their potential on the big stage. The pressure is on Arsenal on Sunday, and Arteta needs his team to find their shooting boots.

Is Bruno back to his best?

United fought back from 2-1 down to draw 2-2 at Liverpool last time out, and if not for a big stoppage-time miss from Harry Maguire, they could have earned a famous three points.

Things have been far from smooth for the Red Devils under Ruben Amorim, but they retain the star quality to cause problems, particularly against opponents who allow them space to play on the break.

Captain Bruno Fernandes encapsulates that quality better than anyone, and he looked back to his best at Anfield, returning from a one-match ban following his red card at Wolves on Boxing Day.

Fernandes created four chances in Sunday's game, at least twice as many as any other player on the pitch (Mohamed Salah, Ryan Gravenberch, Alexis Mac Allister and Andy Robertson created two each).

That is the most created by a United player in a Premier League match at Anfield since Opta records began in 2003-04 and included his assist for Lisandro Martinez's opener. 

Only Cole Palmer (57) and Anthony Gordon (47) have bettered Fernandes' total of 43 chances created in the Premier League this season.

His creativity has waned in 2024-25, though, with his figure of 1.8 open-play chances created per 90 minutes in Premier League action his worst in any campaign since 2019-20 (1.7).

If Amorim has found a way to unlock the Portugal international, who has cut a frustrated figure for much of the season and been sent off three times already, then United could reap the rewards.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Arsenal – Gabriel Jesus

Jesus has scored six goals in his last six appearances across all competitions, having only netted once in his first 20 outings of 2024-25.

Only Havertz (12) and Bukayo Saka (nine) have scored more goals than Jesus among Arsenal players this season, with the former having played almost 1,000 minutes more than Jesus (2,111 to 1,164).

However, the Brazilian has only scored once in 14 career appearances against United. He only averages more minutes per goal against Newcastle (769) and Southampton (745) than he does against the Red Devils (577).

Manchester United – Amad Diallo

At Anfield last time out, Diallo became just the third United player to score away at both Man City and Liverpool within the same Premier League season.

Only Wayne Rooney (in 2004-05) and Robin van Persie (in 2012-13) had previously achieved that feat while representing the Red Devils.

Diallo could add a further goal at the home of another of United's fiercest rivals.