The Women’s Champions League semi-final first legs served up some incredible goals and drama.

And the task for both English sides is simple, in theory. They will have to forge comebacks if they are to reach the final.

While Chelsea were beaten 4-1 by holders Barcelona, the task facing Arsenal, at least in terms of overturning a deficit, is not quite as daunting.

The Gunners lost 2-1 at home to eight-time champions Lyon.

Arsenal had their chances at the Emirates Stadium but were unable to make them count, and they were duly punished by their opponents.

They finished with 11 attempts, getting four of those on target, though the only one that found the net was Mariona Caldentey's 78th-minute penalty. That spot-kick restored parity, cancelling out Kadidiatou Diani's early opener, but Melchie Dumornay was on hand to give Lyon the edge heading into their home leg.

And the Gunners go into this one without history on their side.

A huge challenge

Arsenal are aiming to reach their second Champions League final, after 2006-07, when they became, and remain, the only English side to win the competition.

The Gunners have been eliminated from each of their four semi-final ties since then, however, and from six of seven ties overall (2002-03, 2004-05, 2010-11, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2022-23).

Arsenal have never qualified from a losing position after one leg (from two previous examples), while Lyon have been eliminated from just two of their 27 previous ties when winning the first leg away from home.

However, three of the last five teams to lose the first leg of a knockout stage tie at home (as with Arsenal vs Lyon in this tie) have ended up progressing to the next round.

Another source of potential pain for Arsenal fans is that they could be knocked out by their former boss Joe Montemurro.

Montemurro led Arsenal to two major trophies, winning the Women's Super League title in 2018-19, a year after his Gunners team clinched the Women's League Cup. He also led them to two Women's FA Cup finals, two League Cup finals and a second-place finish in the WSL.

Lyon have proved a brutally efficient force under Montemurro this term, as he has stepped up to fill the void left by Sonia Bompastor.

They have scored 27 goals in the Champions League this season, finding the net in each of their nine matches. Only Barca (40) have scored more goals.

Indeed, only Barca (25.61) have registered a higher xG than Lyon (25.28) in the competition, too.

Lyon have also had 55 big chances in the Champions League this term, 14 more than next-best Arsenal.

So, Arsenal have to find a way to keep them at bay, especially in the early stages, as Lyon have tended to make fast starts. They have scored 10 first-half goals in their nine games; only Barca (19) and Chelsea (15) have scored more in the Champions League this season.

Danger will come from all areas of the pitch, but Arsenal should be particularly vigilant of Diani. With 10 (six goals, four assists), she has the joint-most goal contributions in the competition this season, along with Barca's Claudia Pina (nine goals, one assist).

Diani (83) has had the second-most touches in the opposition box in the Champions League this term, behind only Real Madrid’s Linda Caicedo (84), and ahead of team-mate Dumornay (78), who hit the crossbar as well as scoring the winner in the first leg.

But Arsenal have threats of their own, of course.

In Alessia Russo and Caldentey (both six), Arsenal have two of the Champions League's leading scorers this season.

Both Russo and Caldentey, who starred in the Gunners' win over Madrid in the last eight, will need to make their mark on this match if Arsenal are to turn the tie in their favour.

A former Champions League winner with Barcelona, Caldentey was victorious against Lyon just last season to win the trophy.

Caldentey is not just a goal threat. She has also proved a creative hub for Arsenal, with her 18 chances created the most of any Gunners player in the Champions League this season.

Arsenal have come back from bigger deficits this season, and they overturned a 2-0 first-leg loss to overcome Madrid. While making a habit of having to come from behind is not something Renee Slegers will want to see, she is confident her team are still in with a chance.

"Of course there is belief," said Slegers. "It's half-time, and it’s a one-goal difference.

"We know it’s a big challenge against a really good opponent, but we believe, and we need to believe, that it’s possible."

Katie McCabe expressed a similar sentiment.

She said: "We have to hold onto that belief. We’ve got a fantastic squad of players and a lot of experience."

Can Arsenal buck the trend?

Arsenal have won just one of their seven Champions League matches against Lyon (D1 L5), and they have won just one of their 10 Champions League matches against French opponents (D2 L7), losing six of their last seven. 

Indeed, against no side have the Gunners suffered as many defeats in the competition than Les Fenottes.

The Gunners may take solace in the fact, however, that they have beaten Lyon on the road once before, back in the 2022-23 season.

Caitlin Foord and Beth Mead both scored doubles and Frida Maanum also netted in a hugely impressive 5-1 victory.

Lyon have been tremendous this season, though, so Arsenal would be hard-pressed to score five goals this time around.

The French giants have conceded the fewest goals in the competition this season (three), while only Barca (4.96) boast a lower xG against than the French team’s 5.72. Arsenal rank third with 9.13.

Arsenal will break a long-held Lyon record in this match; they will become the first team in the tournament's history to play 14 matches in a single campaign.

The Opta supercomputer prediction

Lyon will be aiming to finish the job and reach the final of the Champions League for the 12th time, and then go and secure a record-extending ninth title.

The Opta supercomputer is expecting Lyon to do just that.

Lyon came out on top in 54.2% of the model's data-led simulations, while Arsenal are handed just a 22.3% chance of getting the victory, and even that might not be enough to send them through.

The chance of a draw comes in at 23.5%.