The Numbers Game: Spain and England to fight it out for top spot

Top spot in Group A3 is on the line as Spain and England go head-to-head in the Nations League on Sunday.

Spain occupy top spot, having recorded a perfect campaign so far with five wins from five, following their 2-0 victory over 10-man Czechia on Thursday.

But England, who secured their qualification for the quarter-finals with their 2-1 win over Croatia last time out, are only three points behind La Roja.

The Three Lions lost their opener to Spain but have since won four straight games, and they are the top-scoring team in the competition, with 16 goals.

The world champions have an impeccable unbeaten streak to protect when they step out at the Metropolitano, while England will be determined to prove they can go toe-to-toe with the best.

So, who is expected to come out on top in this pivotal clash? Using Opta data, we look at the key storylines ahead of the clash in Madrid.

What's expected?

Given their 100% record so far, it is perhaps no surprise that Spain are quite heavy favourites to claim three points this weekend.

Across the Opta supercomputer's 10,000 pre-match simulations, Spain were triumphant in 59.6%, with England's win probability sitting at 19.3%.

The chance of a draw is 21.2%.

Spain have won seven of their last 10 matches against England (D1 L2), including the most recent two: 2-1 in the Euro 2024 final and 3-2 in the Nations League at Wembley in September.

This is England's first away game against Spain since a 3-2 win back in October 2018, also in the Nations League.

They have won their only other competitive away game against La Roja, beating them 2-1 in a European Championship qualifier in May 1968, but Thomas Tuchel's side will have to overturn the odds to keep that run going.

Spain aim to stay perfect

There is no shying away from the fact that Spain are currently the team to beat in world football, and they have looked unstoppable.

They are on a record 43-game unbeaten streak in all competitions (excluding penalty shoot-outs), with their last defeat a 1-0 friendly loss to Colombia in March 2024.

Not only that, but they have won each of their last 12 games in all competitions since drawing 0-0 with Cape Verde in their World Cup opener.

Among European nations, only Spain in June 2009 (15), France in February 2004 (14), Italy in July 2021 (13) and Scotland in March 1885 (13) have enjoyed longer runs.

They will also prove tough to beat on home soil. Since England beat them at the Estadio Benito Villamarin in October 2018, Spain have lost just one of 40 home matches in all competitions (W31 D8) – a 2-1 defeat to Switzerland in September 2022.

Spain are unbeaten in their last 22 games in Madrid (W17 D5) since England won 4-2 in February 1987 thanks to four Gary Lineker goals at the Santiago Bernabeu.

It also looked likely they will have one of their talismanic figures in Lamine Yamal back, after the 19-year-old missed the Czechia clash with a knee injury.

Luis de la Fuente seemed optimistic he would have the teenage sensation available when they face England, whom Yamal scored against in September, finding the back of the net within the first two minutes.

Spain have scored fewer goals than England (14 to 16), but not for lack of trying, with La Roja firing off 22 shots against Czechia, their highest total in a Nations League match in the 2026-27 campaign.

No matter what, Spain will not want to halt their unbeaten streak, especially not in front of their home fans, and De la Fuente's side will be determined to hit their top level.

Can Kane lead England to the top?

For England, Thursday was all about Ballon d'Or winner Harry Kane.

He made a record-breaking 126th appearance for England, overtaking Peter Shilton as their most-capped player, and his penalty proved to be the winner against Croatia.

After that match, he spoke of his desire to clinch top spot in the group, and he will likely be key to England's bid if they want to get the better of the World Cup winners.

The England captain did score in the reverse fixture at Wembley but also missed a penalty while the Three Lions were 2-1 up, with Spain launching a comeback shortly after.

Overall, he has scored in each of his last five games for England – the fifth time he has had a run of at least five games netting for the national team – and has netted in his last six Nations League outings.

Kane has scored in each of his last six away appearances for England, though, netting nine goals.

In the nation's entire history, only Tom Finney has found the net in seven away games in a row, doing so between September 1946 and May 1948.

England are not overly reliant on the 33-year-old, however, with Anthony Gordon also proving influential. He has recorded four goal involvements in this Nations League campaign, with only Jude Bellingham (six) and Kane (eight) registering more for the Three Lions, while he leads the way for dribbles completed (11).

But the Three Lions are not only the leading scorers in the Nations League. They also have a tournament-leading 14.5 expected goals (12.9 non-penalty xG), proving they are more than a threat in the final third.

Another positive for England is that they have a particularly strong record on the road in recent times. They have won their last nine away games, their joint-longest-ever away winning run, along with a nine-game streak between December 1965 and October 1967, which included a win at Spain.

They have also kept seven consecutive clean sheets in away games, their joint-best along with a seven-match run between October 1995 and October 1997.

While England were without first-choice pairing Marc Guehi and Ezri Konsa against Croatia, the latter could potentially return at the Metropolitano, but whoever Tuchel chooses for his backline is sure to face a tough test.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Spain – Alex Baena

Only Mikel Oyarzabal (10) has more goal involvements for Spain in 2026 than Alex Baena (six – three goals, three assists).

Four of his eight overall goal involvements for the national team have come during this edition of the Nations League (two goals, two assists).

Baena led the line for Spain against Czechia, having a game-high four shots, including the penalty he scored, as well as 15 touches in the opposition box. He was also the only player to get more than one attempt on target.

England – Jude Bellingham

Bellingham became just the fourth England player on record (since 1980) to record six assists in a calendar year last time out.

Les Ferdinand (1993), David Beckham (2004) and Raheem Sterling (2019) are the only players to enjoy such a return, but nobody has ever had seven or more in that time.

Since the start of the World Cup, no England player has more goal involvements than Bellingham (14 – eight goals, six assists), while the only European player with more is Kylian Mbappe (15).