It has been a season to forget for both Manchester clubs in 2024-25, though the 196th instalment of this fabled fixture continues to gather excitement.

Amad Diallo was Manchester United’s derby day hero back in December, with his 90th-minute goal completing a remarkable late turnaround to beat out-of-sorts Manchester City 2-1 in the Premier League.

Pep Guardiola's side were on course for a much-needed three points after Josko Gvardiol's first-half header until Amad was fouled inside the box by Matheus Nunes, with United talisman Bruno Fernandes stepping up from 12 yards to convert the resulting spot-kick.

The spoils seemed set to be shared until Lisandro Martinez's long punt forward was gathered by Amad, who lofted the ball over the on-rushing Ederson before tucking the ball home, handing Ruben Amorim his first big scalp since taking over at Old Trafford.

Amad's goal was just the seventh 90th-minute winner scored against the reigning Premier League champions, and the second netted by a United player after Robin van Persie scored against City in December 2012.

But United and Amorim have failed to build on that famous day at the Etihad Stadium.

Their 1-0 defeat to Nottingham Forest on Tuesday was their 13th of the season so far in the Premier League, their second-most in a campaign in the competition, one short of their record of 14 last campaign. They sit 13th in the standings.

City, meanwhile, emerged 2-0 victors over Leicester City in midweek, tightening their grip on a place in the top four thanks to goals from Jack Grealish – his first Premier League strike since December 2023 – and Omar Marmoush. 

The Red Devils have won 80 of their clashes with their rivals across all competitions to City's 62, with 53 ending in a draw.

But which way will Sunday's clash go? Here, we dive into the Opta data ahead of an intriguing encounter at Old Trafford. 

What's expected?

United have not lost any of their last three meetings with Man City in all competitions (W2 D1), last having a longer run between January 2010 and February 2011 (four).

They are also looking to complete just their first Premier League double over Guardiola's team since 2019-20, following their 2-1 win at the Etihad Stadium in December.

But City come into the contest with confidence. They have won more Premier League away games against United than any other side (nine). Five of their nine wins have come under Guardiola, the most of any visiting manager in the competition.

There is also no such thing as home advantage in the Manchester derby. The away team has won 10 of the last 18 Premier League meetings between the two teams (D2 L6). Since the 2015-16 campaign, the only top-flight fixture with more away wins is Crystal Palace versus Liverpool (12).

Despite United's recent joy in this fixture, it is Guardiola's side who are favoured by the Opta supercomputer this Sunday. 

The Citizens won 43.8% of the pre-match simulations, while the chance of a United victory was handed a 30.7% probability. A draw, meanwhile, is at 25.4%. 

Can Amorim complete Guardiola hat-trick?

United's victory in the reverse fixture came just 40 days after Amorim had guided former employers Sporting CP to a crushing 4-1 victory over City in the Champions League. 

The Red Devils boss is aiming to become just the third manager to beat Guardiola in three consecutive meetings, after Jurgen Klopp with Liverpool (twice) and Thomas Tuchel with Chelsea in 2020-21.

But Amorim is still finding his feet in the United dugout, with troubles coming at both ends of the pitch for much of his tenure in the Premier League. 

In all competitions this season, only Leicester (26) have conceded the opening goal in more matches among all Premier League sides than United (23). 

United have also scored just 37 goals from 405 shots – that 9.14% conversion rate is the third-worst in the division, after Southampton (7.89) and West Ham United (8.55). Their 28.99% big chance conversion rate is the second-worst in the league (better than only Southampton – 28%).

United have also gone eight Premier League matches at Old Trafford without keeping a clean sheet, their longest run since a run of 12 between April and December 2021.

They have shipped 17 goals in nine games under Amorim, with the Portuguese coach having the worst goals conceded per game ratio of any permanent Red Devils manager on home soil in the Premier League (1.89).

The Red Devils have also picked up just two points in eight Premier League home games this season against sides starting the day in the top-half (D2 L6), scoring five and conceding 19 times in those matches.

Can City end their away day struggles at their favourite stomping ground?

City's underwhelming campaign has been underpinned by several factors, with several injuries to first-team players hampering their progression for a record-extending fifth Premier League title. 

But their recent form away from the Etihad has left a lot to be desired, with that Achilles heel perhaps going slightly under the radar this season. 

Indeed, the Citizens have lost six of their last 11 away Premier League matches (W3 D2), as many as they had in their previous 37 away games combined (W26 D5 L6). They have only lost more than six away games in one of the last 13 seasons (seven in 2019-20).

However, they have enjoyed recent trips to Old Trafford, winning more Premier League away games against United than any other side (nine). Five of those victories have come under Guardiola, the most of any visiting manager in the competition.

City have averaged 1.9 goals per league game this season – that is their lowest per game average in a season under Guardiola. They have also conceded 1.33 goals per game, which is their highest average under the Spaniard.

They have also dropped 16 points from winning positions this season in the league – already their worst total in a season under Guardiola. Their previous worst was 13, set in 2020-21 and 2022-23.

And three of those were snatched away in the reverse fixture against United. Amad's goal was just the seventh 90th-minute winner scored against the reigning Premier League champions, and the second netted by a United player after Robin van Persie v City in December 2012.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Manchester United - Bruno Fernandes

Fernandes has been involved in 21 goals at Old Trafford for Man Utd this season in all competitions (12 goals, nine assists).

If he assists in this game, it will be the third time he's registered both 10+ goals and 10+ assists in a season at the Theatre of Dreams (also 2020-21 and 2022-23).

That is more than all other players combined since 1992-93, with only Dwight Yorke in 1998-99 (12G, 10A) and Cristiano Ronaldo in 2006-07 (14G, 11A) achieving the feat. 

Manchester City - Omar Marmoush

In the absence of Erling Haaland, who has been directly involved in nine goals in eight appearances against United for Man City (six goals, three assists), Marmoush looks set to lead the line on his Manchester derby debut.

He took his tally to five Premier League goals against Leicester last time out, but he will be wanting to break his scoring duck away from home against the Citizens' fiercest rivals.

All of Marmoush's Premier League strikes for Man City have come at the Etihad, the outright most by any player to score 100% of their goals at home in the competition this term.