The derby that twice decided the European champion, with Real Madrid's dominance in its favorite tournament and Atlético de Madrid's relentless pursuit of a title it has long deserved, returns to the biggest stage: the Champions League. 

A Struggling Real Madrid Faces a Dominant Atlético

Past wounds will never heal between two neighbors who have taken their rivalry in Spain to the highest possible level. The memories are filled with suffering, but always with a happy ending for Real Madrid, which now finds itself in desperate need of a statement win against an Atlético de Madrid side that, under Diego Simeone, has learned how to push its rival to the limit and come out on top.

That is the challenge facing Carlo Ancelotti, who is dealing with injuries and experiencing one of his most inconsistent seasons in terms of numbers. The only worse campaign was the one following "La Décima," when he lost eight of the first 44 matches of the season and ended up being dismissed. Now, he still has time to turn things around. He has won two of three trophies so far—UEFA Super Cup and Intercontinental Cup—but suffered a heavy defeat against Barcelona in the Spanish Super Cup final.

In LaLiga, the team sits third after winning just one of its last five matches. In the Copa del Rey, they are one step away from the final after winning the first leg of the semifinals in Anoeta. In the Champions League, they have barely survived. The unexpected playoff round against Manchester City, where they defeated Pep Guardiola’s side, provided a boost that now seems to have faded.

"If we play like this, we have no chance of winning on Tuesday," said Ancelotti after losing to Real Betis, frustrated by his team’s poor performance. The squad's injury woes only make things worse: Dani Carvajal, Éder Militao, Dani Ceballos (injured), and Jude Bellingham (suspended) will all be out. Fede Valverde, exhausted from a relentless schedule, is barely making it to the match. Meanwhile, Raúl Asencio, a key player due to his speed and aggressiveness, is expected to start alongside Rüdiger.

The lineup is shaping up with Tchouaméni in midfield, Eduardo Camavinga as a possible addition, and an attacking trio featuring Brahim, Rodrygo, Vinícius—who has only scored once in 15 derbies against Atlético—and Kylian Mbappé, who scored in his first derby appearance.

An Atlético Hungry for Revenge

While history favors Real Madrid, current form is on Atlético’s side. Since late October, Simeone’s team has lost just one of its last 26 matches. This season, the red-and-white side has been rock solid, sitting second in LaLiga, in the Copa del Rey semifinals, and once again facing the Champions League and its biggest rival. A double revenge mission awaits.

The European competition is Atlético de Madrid’s obsession. So close in 2014, 2016, and 2017, yet Real Madrid crushed their dreams each time: twice in the final—once in extra time, once on penalties—and once in the semifinals with a 3-0 thrashing at the Santiago Bernabéu.

This time, Atlético arrives full of confidence, having won its last five Champions League matches with a powerful attacking force. Julián Álvarez is their biggest threat with 21 goals this season, followed by Antoine Griezmann (16), Alexander Sørloth (13, eight of them off the bench), and Ángel Correa (7). Their frontline has scored 57 goals in total, with 22 of them coming from substitutes, showcasing Simeone’s ability to maximize his five available changes per game.

The red-and-white squad tends to finish matches strong, scoring 28 goals from the 80th minute onward. Now, Simeone will likely field his strongest lineup at the Bernabéu, though he knows the tie will be decided at the Metropolitano. Julián Álvarez, Marcos Llorente, and José María Giménez, who were rested in the recent win over Athletic, are expected to return to the starting eleven.

With doubts surrounding the left flank, Javi Galán is likely to remain at left-back, while Samuel Lino and Conor Gallagher compete for a more advanced role. In midfield, Giuliano Simeone, Rodrigo de Paul, and Pablo Barrios will join a defense led by Giménez, Robin Le Normand, and possibly Clément Lenglet if Simeone opts for a back five. Jan Oblak will be in goal, with Koke Resurrección and César Azpilicueta confirmed as absentees.

Probable lineups

Real Madrid

Courtois; Fede Valverde or Lucas Vázquez, Rüdiger, Asencio, Mendy; Tchouaméni, Camavinga, Brahim; Rodrygo, Vinícius, and Mbappé.

Atlético de Madrid

Oblak; Llorente, Le Normand, Giménez or Lenglet, Galán; Giuliano Simeone, De Paul, Barrios, Lino or Gallagher; Griezmann and Julián Álvarez.

Referee: Clement Turpin (France).
Stadium: Santiago Bernabéu.