The presentation of the official 2026 World Cup draw format immediately sparked debate about who Mexico might face in their opening match. With El Tri locked into A1 as hosts, everything pointed toward a debut against a Pot 3 opponent.
But FIFA’s own regulations introduce nuances that prevent a 100% guarantee.

The Draw Structure… and the Interpretation Causing Confusion

FIFA confirmed that Mexico, the United States, and Canada will be in Pot 1, along with the nine highest-ranked teams in the world.
The remaining nations will be placed into Pots 2, 3, and 4 based on ranking — with one exception: the playoff winners drop directly into Pot 4, regardless of level.

As always, the draw includes classic restrictions:

• No more than two European teams per group
• No teams from the same confederation in a group (except UEFA)

To manage this, FIFA created a pre-set placement pattern assigning each pot to specific positions within every group.
For Group A, the format looks like this:

• A1: Mexico
• A2: Pot 3
• A3: Pot 2
• A4: Pot 4

Under this structure, Mexico’s theoretical first opponent would be the team drawn into A2 — a Pot 3 team.

So Why Isn’t It Fully Guaranteed?

Even though the regulations state that A1 vs A2 corresponds to “Matchday 1,” FIFA also clarifies that this order does not necessarily determine the real match calendar.

In simple terms:
The pattern decides positions and pairings, but the actual schedule — kickoff times, dates, and order of games — can still be rearranged later.

The only non-negotiable rule is that each group’s final two matches must be played simultaneously.

Everything else — stadium assignments, broadcast windows, travel logistics — can alter the original match sequence.

So yes, it’s very likely Mexico will debut against a Pot 3 rival… but it will not be officially confirmed until FIFA publishes the final calendar.

Who Could Mexico Face in Their Opener?

With the official pots already outlined, the list of possible A2 (Pot 3) rivals includes:

• Norway (Erling Haaland)
• Egypt (Mohamed Salah)
• Scotland
• Tunisia
• Ivory Coast
• South Africa
• Algeria
• Uzbekistan
• Qatar
• Saudi Arabia
• Paraguay

Panama is excluded due to confederation rules — two Concacaf teams cannot share a group.

This creates scenarios ranging from a blockbuster opener vs. Haaland or Salah, to a more manageable opponent on paper.

Ultimately, whether Mexico opens against a giant or a mid-tier rival will be determined by the draw… and later, by FIFA’s scheduling decisions.