FC Barcelona have the advantage in a LaLiga title race that is only just beginning. At least that is what Opta's predictive model suggests after running thousands of simulations to project how the 2026-27 season could unfold.
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Opta's supercomputer delivers its LaLiga verdict and puts Barcelona in a privileged position
Thousands of simulations paint an encouraging picture for Barcelona before the season gathers pace.
The reigning champions once again emerge as the team with the best chance of lifting the trophy, although Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid still have significant chances in what promises to be a highly competitive campaign.
10,000 scenarios and the same leader
Opta's renowned supercomputer ran 10,000 simulations of the LaLiga season, taking different statistical parameters into account to calculate each club's chances of becoming champions, qualifying for European competitions or being relegated.
The results give Hansi Flick's Barcelona a 45.6% chance of winning the title, which would make the Catalan side Spanish champions for a third consecutive season.
The prediction comes after Barça won the 2024-25 and 2025-26 editions, meaning another title would extend their dominance of Spanish football.
Real Madrid follow closely behind
Barcelona's main rival in the simulations once again comes from the Spanish capital.
Opta gives Real Madrid a 31% chance of winning LaLiga, a significant figure, although clearly below the probability projected for Barcelona.
Los Blancos also enter a season marked by major changes following a particularly active transfer window, with José Mourinho once again in charge of Real Madrid.
Atletico and the chasing pack sit further back
Atletico Madrid have an 8.6% chance of being crowned champions, while Villarreal are given 3.3% and Real Betis just 2%.
The projections also point to an open battle for the European places. While Barça and Madrid appear firmly established among the leading Champions League contenders, Atletico, Villarreal and Betis lead the chase for the remaining spots.
The other end of the predictions
The simulations also identify several teams that could face a difficult season near the bottom of the table.
Among the clubs at greatest risk are Deportivo de La Coruña, Elche and Sevilla, all with probabilities close to 30% of being relegated. Racing de Santander, Espanyol and Málaga are not far behind in the projections either.
For now, they are only mathematical calculations, but the season's first prediction sends a clear message: Barcelona once again begin the campaign as the team everyone will have to try to dethrone.
