Manchester City losing is becoming a regular occurrence, and for the seventh time in the space of 10 matches, Pep Guardiola's side tasted defeat as they went down 2-0 to Juventus on Wednesday.

City looked jaded as they attempted to drag themselves back into contention in Turin, where Dusan Vlahovic and Weston McKennie did the damage for Juve.

Next up is the Manchester derby on Sunday, with Manchester United making the short trip across town to the Etihad Stadium.

After suffering successive league defeats, and sporting director Dan Ashworth's unexpected departure, United claimed a morale-boosting 2-1 comeback win over Viktoria Plzen in the Europa League with Rasmus Hojlund the hero on Thursday.

But this derby is one featuring two teams out of sorts and in desperate need of a Premier League win.

What's expected?

For all their failings as of late, City are still predicted to come out on top.

Pep Guardiola's team won 57% of the data-led simulations run by Opta's supercomputer, which hands United a 22.2% win probability. There is a 20.8% chance of a draw.

According to the same model, City have only a 3.8% chance of retaining the title. The supercomputer is also predicting a bottom-half finish for United, who are 13th heading into the weekend. That's how bad this season is turning out to be for these teams.

United have lost 20 Premier League games against City – only against Arsenal (21) have they lost more in the competition.

The Red Devils have lost each of their last three Premier League away games against City, conceding 13 goals in the process. They last lost four consecutive league visits to their neighbours between 1952 and 1955.

City have won five of their last six Premier League games against United (L1), more than they had in their previous 13 (W4 D3 L6).

However, United beat City in the FA Cup final last season, in the game that handed Erik ten Hag a stay of execution.

More leaks than a tap

For all City's scintillating attacking play under Guardiola, their success has also been built on solid defensive foundations. But that solidity has abandoned them since their poor run began at the end of October.

City have conceded at least twice in seven of their last 11 Premier League games (W4 D3 L4), as many times as they had in their previous 62 in the competition.

Only three teams (Southampton, Chelsea and Ipswich Town) have made more errors leading to shots this season than City in the Premier League, while their 21.6 expected goals against (xGA) ranks 10th in the competition and is higher than the likes of Bournemouth, Fulham and Everton.

Ruben Dias' absence has not helped. City have lost all three league games that he has missed this season, whereas they have lost just one of the 12 matches in which he has played, winning eight of them (66.7%).

With the Portugal international in the team, their average goals against per game is 1.1. Without Dias, City have conceded 2.7 goals per game on average.

Dias is not as important as Rodri clearly is, but having him back should help, albeit it did not do too much good against Juve.

Amorim's good omens?

The last time United lost three league matches in a row within a single season in December 2015 under Louis van Gaal.

New boss Ruben Amorim is yet to lose three on the bounce in his top-flight managerial career, with this his 172nd such match.

Amorim has, of course, already defeated City this season, with his Sporting CP team running out 4-1 victors in the Champions League in November, not long after the Portuguese had been confirmed as United's new boss.

Only one manager has beaten the reigning Premier League champions with two different sides in a single campaign, with Alan Pardew beating Man City with both Newcastle United and Crystal Palace in 2014-15.

One area Amorim needs to patch up is United's set-piece defending. They were vulnerable from such situations in their defeats to Arsenal and Nottingham Forest, and City will surely look to target that frailty.

Indeed, 39% of the goals United have conceded in the Premier League this season have come from corner situations (7/18), the highest share in the division. So far in 2024, they have conceded 15 goals from corners, just three fewer than they did in 2021 (eight), 2022 (four) and 2023 (six) combined.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Manchester City - Erling Haaland

Haaland has nine goal involvements in just four Premier League appearances against United (six goals, three assists).

It is already the most goal involvements any City player has against the Red Devils in the competition.

Manchester United - Bruno Fernandes

After registering just two goal involvements (two assists) in his nine Premier League games under Ten Hag this season, Fernandes has had a hand in six in his last six following the Dutchman’s departure (three goals, three assists).

The Portuguese international has also been involved in five goals in his last six appearances against City in all competitions (two goals, two assists), providing an assist in each of the last three.