Wednesday's 2-2 draw with Aston Villa stretched Liverpool's lead over Premier League title rivals Arsenal to eight points, but with the Gunners hosting West Ham on Saturday, Arne Slot will expect that to be cut before the leaders return to action on Sunday.

The pressure is firmly on his Reds as they approach one of their most daunting fixtures remaining this season, against Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium. 

City suffered a meek Champions League elimination at the hands of Real Madrid on Wednesday, losing 3-1 in Spain and 6-3 on aggregate, and have failed to hit their usual lofty standards all season.

But Pep Guardiola will still be desperate to get one over on City's rivals, particularly with his team embroiled in a battle for a top-four finish.

Here, we look ahead to one of the biggest games of the Premier League season with our Opta-powered preview.

What's expected? 

The Opta supercomputer struggles to split these teams, with City given a 35% chance of victory to Liverpool's 40.5%.

A draw, which Liverpool may not be able to afford as they attempt to fend off second-placed Arsenal, is deemed a 24.5% probability.

Following their 2-0 win in December's return fixture at Anfield, Liverpool are looking to complete the Premier League double over City for just the third time, previously doing so in 2005-06 and 2015-16.

The Reds have achieved the Premier League double over the reigning champions on six previous occasions – more than any other club in the competition's history.

They did so against Blackburn Rovers in 1995-96, Manchester United in 2000-01, 2001-02, 2008-09 and 2013-14, and Chelsea in 2010-11.

Liverpool may enter the game as heavy title favourites, but City have enjoyed an upturn recently and should provide a stern test. 

Since Christmas, only Liverpool and Arsenal have won more points in the Premier League than Guardiola's men (17 – five wins, two draws, one loss). In their eight games beforehand, City picked up only four points (one win, one draw, six defeats).

Can 'mini-Rodri' make the difference?

City have been searching for a player capable of filling a Rodri-shaped hole in their midfield since September, when he suffered his season-ending knee injury against Arsenal.

A failure to control the midfield battleground has been one of the major reasons for their below-par campaign, and those struggles have been particularly evident against the league's best teams.

Between Rodri's injury and last weekend's 4-0 win over Newcastle United, City played seven Premier League games against teams that finished in the top eight last season. They only won one, against Chelsea last month, drawing one and losing the other five.

Last season, City played 12 games against those same opponents with Rodri in their starting lineup, winning six and drawing six.

Last week's rout of Newcastle coincided with Guardiola handing a Premier League debut to a player he has since described as a "mini-Rodri" – former Porto midfielder Nico Gonzalez.

Nico completed 100 passes against Newcastle, the second-most by a midfielder on their Premier League debut on record (since 2003-04). Thirty of those passes came in the final third, a game-high figure. He could now break the record for most passes completed by any player in their first two Premier League games combined; Thiago Silva's 192 in 2020.

Nico also made a team-high three tackles and won four of his five duels against Newcastle, while City's heightened level of control was evident from the fact it was their first Premier League game this season in which they did not face a single big chance.

Nico may not have had the same impact at the Santiago Bernabeu in midweek, but he did score his first City goal late on, also having the most touches (89) and accurate passes (71) of any player on the pitch in Madrid.

Nico will have to be exceptional on both sides of the ball against Liverpool, but a promising start to his City career suggests he could be the player they have been missing.

Reds rocking? 

Liverpool's midweek draw with Villa was their second in their last three Premier League games, following James Tarkowski's stoppage-time heroics in the final Merseyside derby at Goodison Park.

One may argue it should have been three straight draws, as Liverpool were left clinging on in last week's 2-1 win over Wolves at Anfield.

In the second half of that game, the Reds failed to attempt a single shot and faced 10 – it was the first time on record (since 2003-04) they had played a full half of Premier League football without having a shot.

Liverpool have only had fewer shots than their opponents in four Premier League games all season, and two of those instances have come in their last three outings (10-16 versus Wolves, 6-10 against Everton).

Slot's team had a different problem against Villa, failing to take their chances as they won the expected goals (xG) battle by 2.51 to 0.67. Darwin Nunez came in for major criticism after blazing over a gaping goal late on, when presented with a chance worth 0.75 xG.

The absence of Cody Gakpo – who limped off against Everton and is a doubt for Sunday's game – has certainly had an impact in recent matches.

Among all Liverpool players, the Dutchman ranks second to Mohamed Salah for goals (16), total goal involvements (21) and shots attempted (72) in all competitions this season.

Regardless of Gakpo's availability, Slot will know Liverpool need an improvement at both ends of the pitch on a ground where they have only won once in their last 15 league visits (4-1 in November 2015).

The Reds have been excellent on the road this season, though, with Wednesday's draw making them just the sixth team in English top-flight history to go unbeaten through their first 14 matches of a season. They may need to show that resilience at the Etihad.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Manchester City – Omar Marmoush

Going up against his compatriot Salah, Marmoush will hope to match the impact he made against Newcastle last week.

He scored a hat-trick inside 33 minutes of that game, the second-fastest treble ever scored by a City player in the Premier League, after Kevin De Bruyne's 24-minute hat-trick at Wolves in May 2022.

Liverpool – Mohamed Salah

Salah has been involved in more Premier League goals against Guardiola's Manchester City (since 2016-17) than any other player (13 – eight goals, five assists). 

In fact, only fellow Liverpool icon Steven Gerrard (14) has ever been involved in more against the Citizens in the competition's history (four goals, 10 assists).