Although the club has emphasized that LaLiga remains the primary objective, it’s undeniable that the Champions League is never an afterthought for Real Madrid.

Avoiding a Catastrophe

The first-leg advantage serves as a cushion for Carlo Ancelotti’s side, which historically thrives when winning the opening match. However, they face a dangerous Manchester City led by Pep Guardiola, who is still searching for answers—not only to turn around this tie but also to salvage a season that has fallen below expectations.

With a 3-2 aggregate lead, Real Madrid returns to the Santiago Bernabéu, a fortress where the chances of a City comeback decrease.

Still, the possibility of a turnaround exists. A defeat would mean Madrid loses its second title of the season, following the Supercopa de España loss to Barcelona in January.

If eliminated, the club would go from competing for seven trophies to losing two in under two months—a major blow for the team.

Nothing is Decided Yet

Real Madrid has consistently performed well in European knockouts when winning the first leg away. Out of 39 such instances, they have only been eliminated twice—against Odense in the 1994/95 UEFA Cup and Ajax in the 2018/19 Champions League Round of 16.

Meanwhile, Manchester City has historically struggled to overturn deficits after losing at the Etihad Stadium. Their only success came in the 2008/09 UEFA Cup, when they lost at home to Midtjylland but turned things around in Denmark before winning on penalties.

Manchester City’s Struggles Against Spanish Teams

The English club has suffered against Spanish opposition in European knockout rounds. Barcelona eliminated them in consecutive seasons (2013/14 and 2014/15), winning both legs on each occasion.

In recent European competitions, City has been inconsistent away from home. Out of their last 38 away matches, they have won 20, drawn 10, and lost 8. However, this season has been particularly challenging, with defeats to Slovan Bratislava (0-4), Sporting CP (4-1), Juventus (2-0), and Paris Saint-Germain (4-2). The three-game losing streak away from home in the Champions League is something they haven’t experienced since 2012.

Real Madrid’s Strength at the Santiago Bernabéu

The Santiago Bernabéu has been a fortress for Real Madrid in European competitions. They have won 20 of their last 27 home games, with four draws and only three defeats.

However, in this Champions League campaign, they suffered a slip-up in the league-phase stage, losing 1-3 to AC Milan.

Before that loss, Ancelotti’s team had gone 16 games unbeaten at home, with 13 wins and three draws. Their firepower at the Bernabéu has been evident this season, scoring 13 goals in three home European matches: 3-1 vs. Stuttgart, 5-2 vs. Borussia Dortmund, and 5-1 vs. Salzburg.

With the momentum from their solid first-leg performance at the Etihad, Real Madrid enters the second leg confident in their ability to seal the tie.